The Isle of Man’s Climate Risk Report: Important insights, but ultimately only as valuable as the action it inspires

The Isle of Man’s Climate Change Risks and Opportunities Report is a hugely important document, but its value depends almost entirely on how it is used.

The CCROA has been prepared to a high standard. By following the principles of ISO 14091:2021, it adheres to internationally recognised best practice for climate change adaptation risk assessment. It was developed using a combination of expert judgement and extensive engagement representing a range of internal (e.g. Treasury, DOI, Planning and Manx Utilities) and external stakeholders (e.g. Zurich, PWC, MNFU and Manx Wildlife Trust)

The CCROA deserves to be taken seriously.

So, what does it tell us? Primarily, that we are not immune to the impacts of climate change and that urgent adaptation action is necessary to mitigate risk and avoid cost.

The assessment covers four scenarios:

• present day
• 2050s at 2°C warming
• 2080s at 2°C warming and
• 2080s at 4°C warming.

The report states that “the lower 2°C scenario could be achieved if international climate policy goals (e.g. the Paris Agreement) are met and the higher 4°C scenario represents the expected outcomes if only the current, limited global climate ambition and policy commitments, are reached”.

All of the scenarios are currently on the table, and some impacts are already locked in.  

The 119 risks and 14 opportunities identified span five broad categories:

It is important to note, however, that risks across all categories potentially impact communities, businesses and the economy. They are all fundamentally interconnected, and decision makers would be wise to bear that in mind as they choose which areas to prioritise.

The severity of risks increases over time and with higher warming scenarios:

The report indicates that risk to sites, locations and infrastructure from flooding and extreme weather events is the highest priority risk in business sector, as it was scored severe all scenarios – including the present day. This rings absolutely true and instantly, memories of businesses flooded in Parliament Street in Ramsey come to mind (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-isle-of-man-25591664). And not forgetting the devastation caused in Laxey in 2019, subsequent to which a report estimated that across the Isle of Man there could be potentially £900m of direct flood damages over the next 100 years.

Severe and Major risks to businesses include:

Climate change poses enormous risk to businesses at both the micro and macro scales. Flooded premises can wipe out a small business, while increasing payouts for climate disasters threatens the future of the insurance and reinsurance industries.

For businesses of all sizes, operating in the Isle of Man, the CCRAO is potentially very useful, as it provides location specific information, enabling them to more accurately identify, plan for, mitigate and report on, climate risks. When paired with other local data sets – such as the recently updated Flood Maps – the CCROA provides an increasingly comprehensive understanding of climate impacts for the Island.

While the CCROA is useful for businesses and the public, the vast majority of necessary action sits with government. The CCROA provides critical information to inform adaptation and enable our government to effectively prepare for and (as far as possible) protect our community from the impacts of climate change. Actions such as ensuring water security, creating flood defences, and monitoring the changing spread of pathogens are, for the most part, not within the gift of the business community. What is possible, even for the smallest businesses, is making it crystal clear to politicians and government that these issues matter for the future of our economy and that the enterprises which make up the beating heart of that economy, will not accept government failure on this issue.  

Encouraging government to take the action necessary to protect our community from the impacts of climate change should be at the top of any business’s risk mitigation to-do list.

The report helpfully considers what needs to be done to address the risks identified and incorporates an analysis of gaps in current government risk management. For example, in the 4°C warming by 2080 scenario, 74 risks with severe or major impacts were identified. For these, 62 gaps in current action were found, of which 54 require action within two years.

For the optimists among us who may be thinking that the 4-degree scenario may never happen – we simply don’t have the time to wait and see because, if we do, the time for effective preparation will have passed.

The risks highlighted by the CCROA are doubly material. They not only impact the Island directly but also have the potential to influence decisions such as whether companies or workers choose to move or stay here. This is particularly important in the context of the demographic challenges posed by an aging population, and the resulting drive to attract new workers.

Even the opportunities require work to realise. For example, the only considerable opportunity in the present day and across the three other scenarios was the potential for new species. To take advantage of the possibility of being able to cultivate new species of plants would require either new enterprises or the diversification of existing businesses in the agricultural and horticultural sectors. These are sectors which are, at the same time, facing significant risks so, rather than being a true opportunity, the potential for utilising new species may be more like a life ring.

In relation to both risks and opportunities, the value of this report rests firmly in how it is used.

Government published a response to accompany the CCROA in which the Council of Ministers commits to “implementing the Island’s first adaptation strategy”. This is another case of government reaffirming something it has already promised several times (see our article on the Transport Strategy!) because, as the response admits, both the Climate Change Plan and the Island Plan include this objective.

It is now critical that government properly resource the development and implementation of an adaptation strategy. It is a huge, cross-government piece of work that, to be successful, will require cooperation and leadership. This is too important to be a siloed, side-of-the-desk issue – the future of our Island community is at stake (not to mention the potentially huge amount of public funds that failure to adapt would cost).

The CCROA is the writing on the wall. It’s clear, well researched and its message is unequivocal: we need to act now on adaptation and not allow this important assessment to become a list of what could have been done to protect our Island and its community.

The house is on fire. Isn’t it time that we stop adding fuel to the flames, get mitigation efforts on track and limit the damage by launching an effective, properly resourced response to adaptation?